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Data from US presidential elections show that most third parties take extreme positions rather than positions between those of the major partie. This and other phenomena are explained with an extension of the Downsian model of voting. When parties choose not only positions, but also choose among...
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Does the new information revealed by election outcomes help to explain unexpected fluctuations in foreign exchange rates? To answer this question, we examine the behavior of errors from forecasting future exchange rate surrounding elections.
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Achieving peace and building the institutions that will make it last require much time and effort on the part of adversaries. While making this effort, the likelihood of peace is uncertain and preparations for confict are on-going. We examine a setting that takes such considerations into...
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