A sticky-price model is used to motivate a structural VAR analysis of the current account and the real exchange rate for seven major industrialized countries (the US, Canada, the UK, Japan, Germany, France, and Italy). The analysis is distinguished from previous work in that it adopts minimal...

This paper describes Bayesian procedures for forecasting countries' output growth rates and medians of a set of output growth rates using the Gibbs sampler.

This article will employ an economic perspective in trying to understand the phenomenon of organized crime, its effects, and its quick emergence in areas with a power vacuum, including those of many transition economies.

In this paper we describe methods for obtaining the predictive distributions of outcome gains in the framework of a standard latent variable selection model. While most previous work has focused on estimation of mean treatment parameters as the method for characterizing outcome gains from...

Chib and Hamilton (2000) discuss Bayesian estimation of treatment response models subject to the restriction that the cross-regime correlation parameter is zero. This note points out important consequences of that restriction, and argues that the range of applicability of such an approach is...