We examine the relation between trading volume and skewness in 11 international stock markets using daily and monthly data from January 1980 to August 2004. We construct single equation and VAR models of the relation between the first three moments of market returns and trading volumes. Our...

Accurate modeling of extreme price changes is vital to financial risk management. We examine the small sample properties of adaptive tail index estimators under the class of student-t marginal distribution functions including GARCH and propose a model-based bias-corrected estimation approach....

Kocenda (2001) introduced the test for nonlinear dependencies in time series data based on the correlation integral. The idea of the test is to estimate the correlation dimension by integrating over a range of proximity parameter. However, there is an unexplored avenue if one wants to use the...

Prices of currency options commonly differ from the Black-Scholes formula along two dimensions: implied volatilities vary by strike price (volatility smiles) and maturity (implied volatility of at-the-money options increases, on average, with maturity). We account for both using Gram-Charlier...

We investigate the existence of chart patterns in the Euro/Dollar intra-daily foreign exchange market. We use two identification methods of the different chart patterns: one built on close prices only, and one based on low and high prices. We look for twelve types of chart patterns and we study...

Exchange rate stability was defined as one of the prerequisites for monetary integration in Europe. In this paper, we analyze recent developments in the volatility of exchange rates of the Central European countries (the Visegrad Group) and a selected group of European Union countries (the...

This research paper presents statistical comparisons between two methods that are commonly used to estimate option implied Risk-Neutral Densities (RND). These are: 1) mixture of lognormals (MXL); and, 2) volatility function technique (VFT). The former is a parametric method whilst the latter is...

Modeling the unconditional distribution of returns on exchange rate and measuring its tails area are issues in the finance literature that have been studied extensively by parametric and non-parametric estimation procedures. However, a conflict of robustness is derived from them because the time...

We briefly introduce some basic facts about multivariate extreme value theory and present some new results regarding finite aggregates and multivariate extreme value distributions. Based on our results high frequency data can considerably improve quality of estimates of extreme movements in...

This paper proposes a nonparametric model-independent methodology to calibrate the predictability of exchange rates. In order to predict the exchange rates, the predictors should contain enough information about the future return, regardless of the specification of the model. The information...