This paper explores the uniformity of inference for parameters of interest in nonlinear models with endogeneity. The notion of uniformity is fundamental in these models because due to potential endogeneity, the behavior of standard estimators of these parameters is shown to vary with where they...

We consider a decision maker who experiences transient preference shocks when faced with dynamic decision situations that involve intertemporal tradeoffs, such as those in consumption savings problems. We axiomatize a recursive representation of choice over infinite horizon consumption problems...

This paper considers business cycle models with agents who dislike both risk and ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty). Ambiguity aversion is described by recursive multiple priors preferences that capture agents' lack of confidence in probability assessments. While modeling changes in risk...

This paper experimentally investigates how individual preferences, through unrestricted deliberation, get aggregated into a group decision in two contexts: reciprocating gifts, and choosing between lotteries. In both contexts we find that median group members have a significant impact on the...

While there has been enormous interest in hedge funds from academics, prospective and current investors, and policymakers, rigorous empirical evidence of their impact on asset markets has been difficult to find. We construct a simple measure of the aggregate illiquidity of hedge fund portfolios,...

This paper shows that in online auctions like eBay, if bidders are not continuously participating in the auction but can only place bids at random times, then many different equilibria arise besides truthful bidding, despite the option to leave proxy bids. These equilibria can involve gradual...

This paper proposes a new class of dynamic copula models for daily asset returns that exploits information from high frequency (intra-daily) data. We augment the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model of Creal, et al. (2012) with high frequency measures such as realized correlation to...

This paper proposes a new class of copula-based dynamic models for high dimension conditional distributions, facilitating the estimation of a wide variety of measures of systemic risk. Our proposed models draw on successful ideas from the literature on modeling high dimension covariance matrices...

This paper develops methods to study the evolution of agents' expectations and uncertainty in general equilibrium models. A central insight consists of recognizing that the evolution of agents' beliefs can be captured by defining a set of regimes that are characterized by the degree of agents'...

We provide axiomatic foundations for a simple model of play in the prisoners’ dilemma. The model accommodates cooperation and suggests that players behave as if their expectations about their opponents’ behavior vary with their own choice. We refer to this nonstandard updating as magical...