Using a sample of 110 developed and developing countries for the period 1990-2004, this paper analyzes the characteristics of systemic sudden stops (3S) in capital flows and the relevance of balance-sheet effects in the likelihood of their materialization. A small supply of tradable goods...

Using a sample of emerging markets that are integrated into global bond markets, we analyze the collapse and recovery phase of output collapses that coincide with systemic sudden stops, defined as periods of skyrocketing aggregate bond spreads and large capital flow reversals. Our findings...

This paper analyzes the relevance of external factors in average quarterly GDP growth for 1990-2006 in the seven largest Latin American countries (LAC7). Modeling the relationship between LAC7 GDP and several external factors, it is found that those factors account for a significant share of...

This paper reviews three different concepts of equilibrium exchange rates that are widely used in policy analysis and constitute the backbone of the IMF CGER assessment: the Macroeconomic Balance, the External Sustainability and the reduced form approaches. We raise a number of econometric...

The present paper extends the Obstfeld and Rogoff (2005) framework of current account imbalances by the oil exporting countries as a fourth region. It sets the stage for a variety of analysis that can be conducted within a four-region-setting that accounts for the importance of OPEC as a major...

this paper analyzes two effects which might have an important impact on a reduction of global external imbalances. These are valuation effects on the one hand and interest rate effects on the other hand. We use a four-region model that is based on the models by Obstfeld and Rogoff (2005) and...

In emerging-market economies, real exchange rate adjustment is critical for maintaining a sustainable current account position and thereby for helping to reduce macroeconomic and financial instability. The authors examine empirically two related hypotheses: (i) that real exchange rate...

The paper's objective is to examine whether the Indian Rupee was fairly valued as of end March 2015. First, the movements of the trade weighted real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Rupee are tracked over the last ten years. Next, the underpinnings of the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect,...

This paper empirically investigates the determinants of current accounts for a sample of 11 Central and East European Countries outside the Euro area. To this end we rely on the estimation of a panel VAR model with fixed effects over the period Q1 2005 to Q42014. Consistent with existing...

This paper shows estimates of the optimal level of foreign reserves for Brazil between the first quarter of 2004 and the third trimester of 2012, by applying the new Jeanne e Rancière (2011) framework, using different scenarios. The estimates of the optimal holdings of this asset are calculated...