The Maastricht inflation criterion, designed in the early 1990s to bring "high-inflation" EU countries in line with "low-inflation" countries prior to the introduction of the euro, poses challenges for both new EU member countries and the European Central Bank. While the criterion has positively...

This paper examines the household demand for narrow money in Poland during the 1980s. At that time, there were shortages, but informal trade in both goods and foreign exchange was common, and holdings of foreign currency were substantial. Household money demand in this environment is first...

We study empirically daily French and German interest rate changes since the Basle-Nyborg agreement of September 1987. In particular, we ask whether the shock associated with German unification altered the degree of leadership of German monetary policy in the ERM. We conclude that Germany’s...

In this paper, I attempt to provide three markers down the road of financial liberalisation to which Cyprus is committed in its plans to join the European Union. The common theme lies in the importance of a level playing field. First, in my opinion, the central bank of Cyprus could usefully...

There is virtually unanimous agreement that trade integration within the European Union is to everyone's advantage. No such unanimity exists however over the net benefits, or the distribution of benefits, likely to flow from monetary union. Intense debate continues, both at the theoretical and...

This paper analyses the functioning of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). To that end, we apply duration models to estimate an augmented target-zone model, explicitly incorporating political and institutional factors into the explanation of European exchange rate policies. The...

In this paper we provide new evidence on the hypothesis of German leadership and asymmetric performance in the EMS, in the framework of causality tests, using daily data. Given the evidence about non-linearity in financial series, we propose applying non-linear forecasting methods based on the...

The European Monetary System (EMS) has proven to work remarkably well thus far, despite three major realignments. We make an attempt to explain the dynamic stability of the system. This attempt gives a central place to movements in desired transactions balances, or `leads and lags', as they are...

In this paper we present empirical evidence indicating that the EMS countries have experienced a worsening of their inflation/unemployment trade-off since 1979 which on average was more pronounced than in the rest of the OECD area (including the other European countries). We interpret this...