The viability of a fixed exchange rate system is shown to be state- or shock-dependent. We show, simply, Obstfeld's claim that there may be multiple equilibria - multiple shock values for which a regime switch becomes optimal. We distinguish between self-fulfilling and history-dependent crises....

In this we specify and jointly estimate supply, demand and price equations for four aggregate commodity groups: food, beverages, agricultural raw materials and metals. This simple structural model allows us, for each group of commodities, to incorporate stock data for the first time, and to...

This paper argues that a wealth target is an important feature of an economic policy package. A real exchange rate target can be used as an intermediate target to steer national wealth towards its desired value. Such a policy requires that fiscal policy be used to restrain inflation. This may be...

We generalise the analysis of inflation bias with dynamic Phillips curves in three respects. First, we examine the discretionary (time consistent) solution in cases where the Phillips curve has both a backward looking and forward-looking component. Second, we show that the commitment (time...

This paper responds to the important pedagogical exercise of Khan and Montiel (1989). Those authors integrate the Polak monetary model of macroeconomic adjustment with a two-gap growth model to study `adjustment with growth'. Here we nest both the Polak and the Khan and Montiel models in a very...

The purpose of this paper is to provide a simple model which illuminates the interdependence between primary commodity prices and the rest of the economy. We study the role of commodity prices in a disinflation program, the role of commodity prices in determining whether or not a fiscal...

This paper reviews three problems of the world economy since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system; an unreliable price mechanism, spending imbalances between countries, and increased technological competition. It argues that the third phenomenon is the most fundamental and creates potential...

An investigation of the problems of policy formation has to take account of the way in which expectations may be formed. The assumption of rationality is often made on the grounds that there is no reason to assume that views of the future display any particular bias. Some authors take this...

This paper analyses four costs which may be associated with monetary union. First it (obviously) allows no `relative' monetary accommodation of the kind which may assist when dealing with asymmetric shocks. This can impose significant adjustment costs. Second it does not of itself prevent...

A North-South growth model is presented which focuses on i) the complementarity of Southern output (consumption goods) and Northern output (capital goods) and ii) the terms of trade as a mechanism linking the growth rates of the two regions. This Kaldorian model is different from recent...