This paper shows that stock market contagion operates through a domino effect, where small crashes evolve into more severe crashes. Using a novel unifying framework we model the occurrence of local, regional and global crashes in terms of past occurrences of these different crashes and financial...

This paper proposes a novel flexible approach to modelling time variation in asset return dependence by means of mixture copulas. We distinguish between the strength of dependence as determined by the parameter(s) of a given copula, and the structure of dependence as determined by the copula...

We examine competing explanations, based on risk and behavioral models, for the profitability of stock selection strategies in emerging markets. We document that both emerging market risk and global risk factors cannot account for the significant excess returns of selection strategies based on...

This paper presents empirical evidence that security analysts do not efficiently use publicly available macroeconomic information in their earnings forecasts for emerging market stocks. Analysts completely ignore forecasts on political stability, while these provide valuable information for...

This paper develops a reinvestment strategy for private equity which aims to keep its portfolio weight equal to a desired strategic allocation, while taking into account the illiquid nature of private equity. Historical simulations (1980-2005) show that our dynamic strategy is capable of...

The driving force behind the well-documented medium term momentum effect in stock returns is subject of much debate. Empirical papers that aim to find the determinants of this return continuation, seem to be almost exclusively restricted to US stock markets. Consequently, regional effects have...

We decompose the conditional expected mutual fund return in five parts. Two parts, selectivity and expert market timing, can be attributed to manager skill, and three to variation in market exposure that can be achieved by private investors as well. The dynamic model that we use to estimate the...

Latvian employees have to choose a pension fund for the second-pillar of the Latvian pension system. These pension funds invest about 85% in domestic assets. In this paper, we address the question why this strong home bias might exist. Firstly, we conclude that the Latvian pension law is strict...

This paper examines the ability of balanced pension plan managers to successfully time the equity and bond market and select the appropriate assets within these markets. In order to evaluate both market timing abilities in these balanced pension plans, we extend the traditional equity market...

We investigate the construction of well-diversified high-conviction equity portfolios, building on Rudin and Morgan (2006) who introduced the Portfolio Diversification Index (PDI) as a new measure of portfolio diversification applied to long/short equity hedge funds in an in-sample period. We...