Mizrach, Bruce - Department of Economics, Rutgers University-New Brunswick - 1996
procedure. I parameterize the underlying exchange rate process as a mixture of log-normals, price the options using Monte Carlo … promising in explaining the volatility smile. Applying this to the ERM data, I find that the probability of a devaluation in the … British Pound almost doubled before it withdrew from the ERM. This risk becomes statistically significant on September 15 …