Six popular crop yield distributions are compared to determine which best describes yield fluctuations out-of-sample. For 183 crop and county combinations, each distribution is estimated and ranked according to its log-likelihood function observed at out-of-sample observations. A semiparametric...

Little research has been conducted on evaluating out-of-sample forecasts of limited dependent variables. This study describes the large and small sample properties of two forecast evaluation techniques for limited dependent variables: receiver-operator curves and out-of-sample-log-likelihood...

A previous study showed that imposing economic restrictions improves the forecasting ability of food demand systems, thus warranting their use even when they are rejected in-sample. This article evaluates whether this result is due to economic restrictions enhancing degrees of freedom or...

The effects of various supply and demand shifts on beef price, quantity, and industry welfare have been widely studied under the assumption of beef quality homogeneity. In this paper, we construct a model of the beef sector that incorporates differences in beef quality. The model is used to...

We compare the ability of three preference elicitation methods (hypothetical choices, non-hypothetical choices, and non-hypothetical rankings) and three discrete-choice econometric models (the multinomial logit, the independent availability logit, and the random parameter logit) to predict...

Little research has been conducted on evaluating out-of-sample forecasts of limited dependent variables. This study describes the large and small sample properties of two forecast evaluation techniques for limited dependent variables: receiver-operator curves and out-of-sample-log-likelihood...

The majority of pig farms in North Carolina use a lagoon-sprayfield system to manage manure. Although economical, the lagoon-sprayfield system is sensitive to weather conditions. This study examines the cost of manure management under extreme weather and scrutinizes National Resource...

While the combination of several or more models is often found to improve forecasts (Brandt and Bessler, Min and Zellner, Norwood and Schroeder), hypothesis tests are typically conducted using a single model approach 1 . Hypothesis tests and forecasts have similar goals; they seek to define a...

Model selection is often conducted by ranking models by their out-of-sample forecast error. Such criteria only incorporate information about the expected value, whereas models usually describe the entire probability distribution. Hence, researchers may desire a criteria evaluating the...