This paper assesses the usefulness of private credit variables and other macrofinancial and banking sector indicators for the setting of Basel III/CRD IV countercyclical capital buffers (CCBs) in a multivariate early warning model framework, using data for 23 EU Members States from 1982 Q2 to...

We provide systematic evidence for the association of liquidity shocks and aggregate asset prices during mechanically identified asset price boom/bust episodes for 18 OECD countries since the 1970s, while taking care of the endogeneity of money and credit. Our derivation of liquidity shocks...

This paper provides a broad empirical examination of the major currencies' roles in international capital markets, with a special emphasis on the first year of the euro. A contribution is made as to how to measure these roles, both from the viewpoint of international financing as well as from...

Long before the introduction of the euro there was an active debate among researchers, policy-makers and financial market participants over how the new European money would change the relative roles of currencies in the international monetary and financial system. A widely held view was that the...

This paper aims at providing policymakers with a set of early warning indicators helpful in guiding decisions on when to activate macroprudential tools targeting excessive credit growth and leverage. To robustly select the key indicators we apply the “Random Forest” method, which bootstraps...

We estimate a multivariate early-warning model to assess the usefulness of private credit and other macro-financial variables in predicting banking sector vulnerabilities. Using data for 23 European countries, we find that global variables and in particular global credit growth are strong...

This paper presents the analysis underpinning the ESRB Recommendation on guidance on setting countercyclical buffer rates (ESRB 2014/1). The Recommendation is designed to help authorities tasked with setting the countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) to operationalise this new macroprudential...

We test the performance of a host of real and financial variables as early warning indicators for costly aggregate asset price boom/bust cycles, using data for 18 OECD countries.A 'real time' signalling approach is used to predict asset price booms that have serious real economy consequences. We...