How should policy be optimally designed when a monetary authority faces a private sector that is somewhat skeptical about policy announcements and which interprets economic data as providing evidence about the monetary authority's preferences or its ability to carry through on policy plans? To...

How should policy be optimally designed when a monetary authority faces a private sector that is skeptical about policy announcements and makes inferences about the monetary authority’s ability to follow through on policy plans from economic data? To provide an answer to this question, we...

The potential for large, shallow earthquakes and their associated seismic hazard in the eastern Caucasus, an area of dense population and sensitive industrial infrastructure, remains speculative based on historical precedent and current geologic and seismologic observations. Here we present...

Can nominal contracts make a difference for the neutrality of money if these arise endogenously in general equilibrium? This paper utilizes aversion of Lucas's seminal equilibrium business cycle theory to address this question. However, we depart from Lucas in assuming that (1) agents have...

This paper describes the <I>de facto</I> economic integration taking place between China, Hong Kong and Taiwan -- the "Chinese Economic Area" -- and analyses basic factors underlying the process. Even in the face of weak economic performance in OECD countries the integration has helped underpin rapid...</i>

This paper conducts a modern variant of the test proposed and carried out by Adelman and Adelman (1959). Using the methods developed by Burns and Mitchell (1946). we see if we can distinguish between the economic series generated by an actual economy and those analogous artificial series...