Industrial policies pursued in many developing countries in the 1950s-1970s largely failed while the industrial policies of the Asian Miracles succeeded. We argue that a key factor of success is industrial policy with export orientation in contrast to import substitution. Exporting encouraged...

With the use and complexity of industrial policy rising, along with the need for active policies to address climate, food, health, and other emergencies, IMF staff are often expected to provide policy and technical advice on trade-related industrial policies to national authorities. This note...

We estimate the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in the United States, combining theory-consistent and narrative sign restrictions in Bayesian SVARs. We find mostly adverse consequences of protectionism, in aggregate and across sectors and regions. Tariff...

Economic theory suggests that countries' tariff commitments in trade agreements reflect their import market power at the time of negotiations. However, as countries grow, their market power in different sectors can change in unforeseen ways and their commitments may no longer reflect changed...

We show that a small set of emerging markets with floating exchange rates expand the investment frontier substantially relative to G10 currencies. The frontier is characterized by an out-of-sample mean-variance efficient portfolio that prices G10- and emerging markets-based trading strategies...

Wirtschaftspolitiker verfolgen eine Vielzahl von kurz- und langfristigen Zielen, die einander ergänzen aber auch widersprechen können. Daher müssen wirtschaftspolitische Maßnahmen theoretisch begründet und zielorientiert gestaltet werden. In der vorliegenden Einführung in wichtige...