As international financial integration gathers pace, interconnectivity has increased tremendously among financial institutions, financial markets and financial systems, a phenomenon to which the recent global financial crisis perhaps provided the best testimony. The interconnectivity among...

Under the framework of Basel II, banks which adopt the internal ratings-based approach will be required to compare their actual provisions with expected losses. Any shortfall (i.e., the expected loss exceeds the provision) should be deducted from capital of the bank. It is therefore important to...

The empirical results show that after the introduction of the three refinements to the Linked Exchange Rate system in May 2005 the Hong Kong dollar follows a bounded process that is consistent with a fully credible exchange rate band. The bounded process will limit the movements of the exchange...

The sharp fall of property prices after the Asian financial crisis has led many residential mortgage holders in Hong Kong to experience negative equity. Among other factors, this study looks at the impact of negative equity on the probability of default on mortgage loans, which is an important...

Hong Kong has seen strong growth in labour productivity since 2002. Sectoral breakdown shows that the advance in output per labour has been mainly supported by the expansion in financial and trade related activities attributable to the vibrant increase in offshore trade and exports of financial...

In portfolio and risk management, estimating and forecasting the volatilities and correlations of asset returns plays an important role. Recently, interest in the estimation of the covariance matrix of large dimensional portfolios has increased. Using a portfolio of 63 assets covering stocks,...

In macro surveillance work, we often find it difficult to assess the state of the Mainland economy based on unadjusted monthly or quarterly data as the underlying economic trends are obscured by seasonal variations and the effect of moving holidays. Standard procedures exist for seasonal...

This paper studies the effects of the fiscal-stimulus package in Mainland China on its output and employment. Using the input-output table as the analytical framework, we argue that the aggregate effect on output and employment of a given amount of fiscal spending depends on the distribution of...

As the Hong Kong economy became increasingly integrated with that of Mainland China, it has benefited tremendously from the strong performance of the Mainland economy. At the same time, skilful macroeconomic management and sustained structural reforms on the Mainland have engendered a virtuous...