Property prices in Hong Kong increased markedly in late 2007 and early 2008, raising concerns about the risk of overheating in the property market. In this paper, we use co-integration analysis to analyze the short- and long-run determinants of property prices in Hong Kong. We find that the...

Market sentiment is increasingly seen as a key factor driving the movement of asset prices. This paper develops two indicators to measure investors' attitude towards risk in the Hong Kong stock market: a) a risk appetite index and b) an investment sentiment index. We find that although the risk...

Given the close relationship between corporate vulnerabilities and the occurrence of banking and financial crises, regulators need to adopt a financial stability monitoring and surveillance framework which includes the assessment of the credit risk of the corporate sector. This paper illustrates...

Hong Kong has witnessed an equity initial public offering (IPO) boom since 2005. As the interbank payments involved in an IPO can be hundreds of times larger than the Aggregate Balance, increased funding needs and heightened demand for interbank liquidity may drive interbank interest rates up....

It is often argued that changes in commodity prices can provide a timely signal of future movements in CPI inflation because they are a sensitive leading indicator of global demand conditions. The sharp increase in commodity prices since mid-2003 has raised concerns about whether this is a...

This paper proposes a path-dependent approach for estimating realignment probabilities of targeted exchange rates based on first-passage-time distributions instead of the commonly used path-independent approach. We consider that path dependency is an intrinsic characteristic of realignment risk...

This paper assesses the impact of the recent financial reforms in China. Following the country¡¯s accession to the World Trade Organization, financial liberalisation has picked up considerable momentum. Measures introduced encompass deregulation in the banking sector and refinements in various...

A salient feature of Hong Kong's external trade is its intermediation role. As the entrepot for Mainland China, Hong Kong helps channel raw materials and semi-manufacturing products from the rest of the world to the Mainland for further processing and then helps re-export the processed goods and...

Under the Linked Exchange Rate system, both Hong Kong dollar (HKD) narrow money (M1) and broad money (M2 and M3) are endogenously determined by factors such as economic activity and capital flows. Although these monetary aggregates do not provide any indication of the policy stance of the Hong...

The movement of sovereign yields is important for both investment and risk management. In this paper, we apply a method that was first developed by Diebold et al (2006b) to model the sovereign bond yield curves of the US, Japan and Germany. By including observable macroeconomic variables and the...