In this paper, we attempt to analyse the relationship between house price dynamics and the business cycle. Employing a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework, we provide empirical evidence that house price growth may prove a useful leading indicator for turning point...

In this paper, we attempt to analyse the relationship between house price developments and the business cycle. Employing a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework, we provide empirical evidence that house price growth may prove a useful leading indicator for turning point...

In the paper, two indicators, the coincident and the leading indicator, are proposed to represent the aggregated economic activity in Poland. The indicators are constructed with stochastic cycle and trend model. Not only does the presented approach solve the problem of existence of stochastic...

This paper analyses the business cycle properties of 183 time series relevant to the Italian economy. We propose new monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the Italian business cycle. On the methodological side, the study follows a schema for constructing cyclical indicators on...

This paper analyses the business cycle properties of 183 time series relevant to the Italian economy, including real, monetary and international variables. We propose new monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the Italian business cycle; the leading indicator anticipates the...

In the wake of the recent international economic recession in 2008-2009, forecasting methods designed to anticipate business cycles have been widely revisited. Recent innovative econometric methods were presented and widely discussed by academics and economists from international and national...

This contribution investigates the business cycles of Switzerland compared to its five neighboring countries Germany, Austria, Italy, France and Liechtenstein. In contrast to the widespread notion of small countries "importing" the business cycle from bigger neighbors, it is shown that the real...

This paper examines the determinants of the inclusion of European companies in the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index and the Dow Jones STOXX Sustainability Index. In doing so, the paper contributes to the micro-econometric literature analyzing the determinants and economic effects of...

Based on unique data from a world-wide survey of agents involved in international climate policy, this paper empirically analyzes the importance of equity in this field. We find that equity issues are considered highly important in international climate negotiations and that the polluter-pays...