We present a model where policies of free capital mobility can signal governments' future policies, but the informativeness of the signal depends on the path of world interest rates. Capital flows to "emerging markets" reflect investors' perception of these markets' political risk. With low...

Is there a fundamental conflict between insulating monetary policy from popular pressures, seen as essential to sound monetary policy, and making policy responsive to the popular will, seen as fundamental to democracy? We argue that strongly independent monetary policy is not inconsistent with...

Recent large-scale replications of social science experiments provide important information on the reliability of experimental research. Unfortunately, there exist no mechanisms to ensure replications are done. We propose such a mechanism: journal-based replication, in which the publishing...

This article proposes a structural approach to measuring the effects of electoral accountability. We estimate a political agency model with imperfect information in order to identify and quantify discipline and selection effects, using data on U.S. governors. We find that the possibility of...

There are two common views of pork barrel spending. One is that pork barrel spending benefits special interests at the expense of social welfare, hence antithetical to responsible policymaking, especially in times of crisis. An alternative is that pork “greases the legislative wheels” making...

While economists argue that lower budget deficits are required in the developed countries, there is a widely held perception that expansionary fiscal policy helps incumbents to get reelected, an assumption that underlies the view that political budget cycles are widespread. However, this view...

Since a key function of competitive elections is to allow voters to express their policy preferences, one might take it for granted that when leadership changes, policy change follows. Using a dataset we created on the composition of central government expenditures in a panel of 71 democracies...

We review research on political budget cycles across countries, including recent findings that they are a phenemenon of new democracies and are statistically insignificant in old, established democracies. We then consider what may account for this and review several hypotheses. Recent empirical...

While economists argue that lower budget deficits are required in the developed countries, there is a widely held perception that expansionary fiscal policy helps incumbents to get reelected, an assumption that undelies the view that political budget cycles are widespread. However, this view has...

We test conventional wisdom that good economic conditions and expansionary fiscal policy help incumbents get reelected in a panel of 74 democracies over 1960-2003. We find no evidence that deficits help reelection in any group of countries independent of level of development, level or age of...