In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, some risk management practitioners have advocated wider adoption of Bayesian inference to replace Value- at-Risk (VaR) models in order to minimize risk failures. Despite its limitations, the Bayesian methodology has significant advantages. Just...

It has been more than half a century since Tukey first introduced graphical displays that relate non-overlap of confidence intervals to statistically significant differences between parameter estimates. In this paper, we show how Tukey’s graphical overlap procedure can be modified to...

In aftermath of the Financial Crisis, some risk management practitioners advocate wider adoption of Bayesian inference to replace Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for minimizing risk failures (Borison & Hamm, 2010). They claim reliance of Bayesian inference on subjective judgment, the key limitation...

In this paper we address the issue of the efficient estimation of the cointegrating vector in linear regression models with variables that follow general (higher order and fractionally) integrated processes.

In this paper we address the issue of the efficient estimation of the cointegrating vector in linear regression models with variables that follow general (higher order and fractionally) integrated processes.

We study several tests for the coefficient of the single right-hand-side endogenous variable in a linear equation estimated by instrumental variables. We show that all the test statistics -- Student's t, Anderson-Rubin, Kleibergen's K, and likelihood ratio (LR) -- can be written as functions of...

The bootstrap is a statistical technique used more and more widely in econometrics. While it is capable of yielding very reliable inference, some precautions should be taken in order to ensure this. Two "Golden Rules" are formulated that, if observed, help to obtain the best the bootstrap can...

This study explores the volatility models and evaluates the quality of one-step ahead forecasts of volatility constructed by (1) GARCH, (2) TGARCH, (3) Risk metrics and (4) Historical volatility. Volatility forecasts suggest that TGARCH performs relatively best in term of MSPE, followed by...

This paper considers the question of the symmetry of inflation and GDP shocks between the UK and the three major European EMU countries. It applies a relatively new technique, the orthogonal GARCH model, which allows us to calculate a complete time varying correlation matrix for these four...

The bootstrap is a statistical technique used more and more widely in econometrics. While it is capable of yielding very reliable inference, some precautions should be taken in order to ensure this. Two “Golden Rules” are formulated that, if observed, help to obtain the best the bootstrap...