issues in forecasting and structural analysis. An application to the estimation of a system of time-varying reaction …

analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts …. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all …

raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance. …

also find fundamentalsbased models very successful in beating a random walk in out-of-sample prediction. …

Investment Survey - own funds at book value -will provide useful information for compiling the international investment position. …

cycle are adversely shocked by one standard deviation, the conditional probability of a SBA nearly doubles, implying an …

This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the … pressures, including a gap could improve the accuracy of autoregressive inflation forecasting. This assertion is tested in a … simple simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for the period 1990-2002. The main conclusions are that an output gap …