closely the estimated predictions match the objectively correct predictions. We find that all methods do reasonably well when …

We assess the spot price forecasting performance of 10 commodity futures at various horizons up to two years and test …-of-sample, we find that the forecast from the futures market is hard to beat. We find that the forecasting performance of futures … does not depend on the slope of the futures curve, in contrast to the predictions of well-known models of commodity markets …

channel using a popular internet measure of "prophetic activity" and a 9/11 event study. I also analyze survey data covering …

with the predictions of both theoretical models, but our findings for high-risk firms conflict with the predictions of …