This paper provides indirect tests of the hypothesis that exchange rate movements may be largely coterminus with changes in preferences for holding claims on different countries. It is argued that changes in country preferences will be reflected systematically in the price of gold and, hence,...

The paper considers the merits of rules and discretion for monetary policy when the structure of the macroeconomic model and the probability distributions of disturbances are not well defined. It is argued that when it is costly to delay policy reactions to seldom-experienced shocks until formal...

The paper describes six different methodologies that have been used to assess the equilibrium values of exchange rates and discusses their limitations. It applies several of the approaches to data for the United States as of 2006, illustrates that different approaches sometimes provide...

The paper argues that international differences in fiscal conditions influence the relative attractiveness of locating production facilities in different countries and could prove to be a troublesome source of instability for the European economies. Even though physical capital movements tend to...

The paper discusses the case against a laissez faire approach to resource allocation and develops a model of supply bottlenecks. It argues that: (1) once budget constraints are hardened and credit markets begin to function appropriately, externalities associated with production bottlenecks and...

The paper uses MULTIMOD to analyze the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks, distinguishing between temporary, more persistent, and permanent shocks. It provides perspectives on several findings in the literature and the key role of monetary policy in influencing macroeconomic outcomes....