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Early Warning Systems; A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach

Abiad, Abdul - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769232

On the Heterogeneity Bias of Pooled Estimators in Stationary VAR Specifications

Rebucci, Alessandro - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

This paper studies asymptotically the bias of the fixed effect (FE) estimator induced by cross-section heterogeneity in the slope parameters of stationary vector autoregressions (VARs). The paper also compares the FE, the mean group estimator (MG), and a simple instrumental variable alternative...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263898

Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries; A "Fan-Chart" Approach

Celasun, Oya; Debrun, Xavier; Ostry, Jonathan David - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826339

Nonlinearity in Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity; An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle

Valente, Giorgio; Leon, H. L.; Sarno, Lucio - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006

We provide empirical evidence that deviations from uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transaction costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604790

The Impact of Public Capital, Human Capital, and Knowledgeon Aggregate Output

Joutz, Frederick L.; Abdih, Yasser - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

This paper investigates the impact of public capital on private sector output by testing and estimating an aggregate production function for the U.S. economy over the postwar period augmented to include the stock of public capital as an additional factor input. We use patent applications to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263996

Exploration of the Brazilian Term Structure in a Hidden Markov Framework

Munclinger, Richard - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011

We apply a hidden Markov model of the term structure to modeling the Brazilian swap rate curve. We examine the model's characteristics and its performance in describing the cross-sectional and time-series dynamics of the term structure. Two regimes are identified, a high level and a high...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008839349

Measuring Contagion with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model

Rebucci, Alessandro; Ciccarelli, Matteo - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not … require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It distinguishes contagion not only from interdependence but also from … structural breaks and can be used to investigate positive as well as negative contagion. The proposed measure appears to work …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263948

In Search of Coincident and Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Argentina

Simone, Alejandro - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2001

Time series on economic activity in developing countries, in particular real GDP, are reported with important lags. Therefore, it is useful to construct indicators that coincide or lead the actual direction and level of economic activity. A general methodology to construct these indicators is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604906

Modeling Stochastic Volatility with Application to Stock Returns

Krichene, Noureddine - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

A stochastic volatility model where volatility was driven solely by a latent variable called news was estimated for three stock indices. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was used for estimating Bayesian parameters and filtering volatilities. Volatility persistence being close to one was...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826355

Assessing Early Warning Systems; How Have they Worked in Practice?

Berg, Andrew; Borensztein, Eduardo; Pattillo, Catherine A. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768990

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