There is strong evidence that interest rates and bond yield movements exhibit both stochastic volatility and unanticipated jumps. The presence of frequent jumps makes it natural to ask whether there is a premium for jump risk embedded in observed bond yields. This paper identifies a class of...

Empirical studies have had little success in finding a statistically significant relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation in broad cross-country panels. This paper provides new econometric estimates for a panel of 23 emerging market countries during 1970-2000. Unlike previous studies,...

This paper examines how emerging bond markets react to macroeconomic announcements. Global bond spreads respond to rating actions and changes in global interest rates rather than domestic data and policy announcements. All announcements affect market volatility. Data and policy announcements...

Gaining a better understanding of the behavior of international investors is key for informing the debate about the optimal response to capital flows and about reforms to the international financial architecture. In this context, recent research on the behavior of international mutual funds at...

With the global economy beginning to emerge from the financial crisis, capital is flowing back to emerging market countries (EMEs). These flows, and capital mobility more generally, allow countries with limited savings to attract financing for productive investment projects, foster the...

This paper analyzes the determinants of daily changes in Jordan''s interbank market overnight rate. It not only quantifies the classic liquidity effect, but also uncovers a liquidity distribution effect on both sides of the market, and shows that their magnitude is a decreasing and convex...

This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy response in 118 episodes of systemic banking crisis in advanced and emerging market countries during 1980-2008. It finds that timely countercyclical fiscal measures contribute to shortening the length of crisis episodes by stimulating aggregate...

This paper studies how financial stress is transmitted from advanced to emerging economies, using a new financial stress index for emerging economies. An episode of financial stress is defined as a period when the financial system''s ability to intermediate may be impaired. Previous financial...

This paper investigates the role played by emerging Asia in the emergence and evolution of the global trade imbalances. Based on simulations in a general equilibrium model of the world economy, we find that a productivity slowdown in the non-tradable sector of these economies in the second half...

An implication of the ""globalization hazard"" hypothesis is that sudden stops could be prevented by offering foreign investors price guarantees on emerging markets assets. These guarantees create a tradeoff, however, because they weaken globalization hazard by creating international moral...