This (revised) study seeks to examine the rise, expansion, and ultimate decline of the Italian wool-based textile industries over a period of six centuries (from ca. 1100 to ca. 1730). An international trade model combining transaction costs and comparative advantage is employed to explain the...

There is a 34-fold difference in average farm size (land per farm) between rich and poor countries and striking differences in their size distributions. Since labor productivity is much higher in large relative to small farms, we study the determinants of farm-size differences across countries...

There are substantial cross-country differences in labor supply late in the life cycle (age 50+). A theory of labor supply and retirement decisions is developed to quantitatively assess the role of social security, disability insurance, and taxation for understanding differences in labor supply...

This paper presents a tractable framework for studying frictionless matching in school, work, and marriage when individuals have heterogeneous social and cognitive skills. In the model, there are gains to specialization and team production, but specialization requires communication and...

This paper develops an efficient approach to model and forecast time-series data with an unknown number of change-points. Using a conjugate prior and conditional on time-invariant parameters, the predictive density and the posterior distribution of the change-points have closed forms. The...

In this paper we extend the parametric, asymmetric, stochastic volatility model (ASV), where returns are correlated with volatility, by flexibly modeling the bivariate distribution of the return and volatility innovations nonparametrically. Its novelty is in modeling the joint, conditional,...

The IMF's 2002 proposal for a new Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism (SDRM) attracted considerable criticism from both emerging market sovereign debt issuers and from private sector financial institutions. This paper outlines the features of the SDRM and its advantages as perceived by the...

I construct a tractable model to evaluate the liquidity shock hypothesis that exogenous shocks to equity market liquidity are an important cause of the business cycle. After calibrating the model, I find that a large and persistent negative liquidity shock can generate large drops in investment,...

An average person born in the United States in the second half of the nineteenth century completed 7 years of schooling and spent 58 hours a week working in the market. By contrast, an average person born at the end of the twentieth century completed 14 years of schooling and spent 40 hours a...

This paper proposes new dynamic component models of realized covariance (RCOV) matrices based on recent work in time-varying Wishart distributions. The specifications are linked to returns for a joint multivariate model of returns and covariance dynamics that is both easy to estimate and...