This paper addresses the issue of optimal transparency in a multiple-dealer market. In particular, we examine the question: Would risk-averse dealers prefer ex-ante that signed order flow were observable? We answer this question with the solution to a mechanism design problem. The resulting...

It is a common view that private information in the foreign exchange market does not exist. We provide evidence against this view. The evidence comes from the introduction of trading in Tokyo over the lunch-hour. Lunch return variance doubles with the introduction of trading, which cannot be due...

This paper introduces a three-part transactions dataset to test various microstructural hypotheses about the spot foreign exchange market. In particular, we test for effects of trading volume on quoted prices through the two channels stressed in the literature: the information channel and the...

This paper addresses the puzzle of regime-dependent volatility in foreign exchange. We extend the literature in two ways. First, our microstructural model provides a qualitatively new explanation for the puzzle. Second, we test implications of our model using Europe's recent shift to rigidly...

This paper develops a model for understanding end-user order flow in the FX market. The model addresses several puzzling findings. First, the estimated price-impact of flow from different end-user segments is, dollar-for-dollar, quite different. Second, order flow from segments traditionally...

Intraday interest rates are zero. Consequently, a foreign exchange dealer can short a vulnerable currency in the morning, close this position in the afternoon, and never face an interest cost. This tactic might seem especially attractive in times of crisis, since it suggests an immunity to the...

This paper examines whether currency trading volume is informative, and under what circumstances. Specifically, we use transactions data to test whether trades occurring when trading intensity is high are more informative - dollar for dollar - than trades occurring when intensity is low. Theory...

In this paper we build upon previous work on external economies in manufacturing [Caballero and Lyons (1989, 1990)] by providing new evidence helpful for discriminating between different types of externalities. We investigate four-digit level input-output relationships and find that, over...

This paper tests the portfolio-balance approach to exchange rate determination in a new way. Past work on portfolio balance in foreign exchange falls into two groups: (1) tests using measures of asset supply and (2) tests using measures of central-bank asset demand. We address the demand side,...

This paper addresses currency competition from an information perspective. Transactions in traditional models do not convey information, so transaction costs -- the driver of competition outcomes -- are driven by market size. In our model transactions do convey information (consistent with...