After an impressive acceleration in growth and poverty reduction since the mid-1990s, many African countries continue to register robust growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Will this growth persist, given the tepid recovery in developed countries, numerous weather shocks, and...

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze and derive simple budget rules in the face of volatile public revenue from natural resources in a low-income country like Niger. The simulation results suggest three policy lessons or rules of thumb. When a resource...

Devarajan, Go, Page, Robinson, and Thierfelder argued that if aid is about the future and recipients are able to plan consumption and investment decisions optimally over time, then the potential problem of an aid-induced appreciation of the real exchange rate (Dutch disease) does not occur. In...

August 1999 - A general equilibrium tax model estimated for 60 countries provides a simple but rigorous method for estimating the fiscal impact of trade reform. Using a tax model of an open economy, Devarajan, Go, and Li provide a simple but rigorous method for estimating the fiscal impact of...

The July 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and Permanent Members of the UN Security Council and Germany (P5+1), with the attendant lifting of sanctions on Iran, will have significant consequences for the global, regional and national economies. First, Iran's return to the oil market, coupled with...

The economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2015 is slightly more favorable than in 2013-14, when the region as a whole grew at 3 percent a year. The World Bank group's latest MENA Economic Monitor projects MENA's economic growth to average 5.2 percent in 2015...

In the three months since most observers, including the World Bank, issued their last forecasts, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region has changed substantially. Political tensions have eased somewhat with presidential and legislative elections completed in a few countries. Egypt's...

The July 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and Permanent Members of the UN Security Council and Germany (P5+1), with the attendant lifting of sanctions on Iran, will have significant consequences for the global, regional and national economies. First, Iran's return to the oil market, coupled with...

The short term economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remains "cautiously pessimistic". A combination of civil wars and refugee inflows, terrorist attacks, cheap oil, and subdued global economic recovery is expected to keep average growth in the MENA region around 3...

Despite a large body of research and evidence on the policies and institutions needed to generate growth and reduce poverty, many governments fail to adopt these policies or establish the institutions. Research advances since the 1990s have explained this syndrome, which this paper generically...