This paper provides evidence on the reliability of euro area real-time output gap estimates. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several sets of euro area output gap estimates available from 1999 to 2006. It turns out that real-time estimates of the...

In this paper, we capture the link between M3 growth and inflation with a vector error correction model. The analysis also includes the 10-year government bond yield, the threemonth EURIBOR interest rate and GDP. The long-run link between M3 growth and inflation is observable in the raw data....

This paper provides real time evidence on the usefulness of the euro area output gap as a leading indicator for inflation and growth. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several alternative gap estimates. It turns out that, despite some difference across...

This paper provides real time evidence on the usefulness of the euro area output gap as a leading indicator for inflation and growth. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several alternative gap estimates. It turns out that, despite some difference across...

This paper presents evidence for sources and channels of nonlinearities and instabilities of the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) for the euro area and all but four member states over the last two decades prior to the COVID-19 crisis. The approach rests upon misspecification testing using...

This article seeks to check the nonlinearity of the Phillips curve in Tunisia for the 1993–2012 period, relying on a hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve modeled via a Logistic Smooth Transition Regression (LSTR) model with endogenous variables. We estimate this model using the nonlinear...

This study examines nonlinear adjustment effects in the purchasing power parity (PPP) between South Africa and her main currency trading partners; namely, the US, the UK, the Euro area, China and Japan. We use monthly data of the nominal exchange rates and domestic price level data collected...

This paper proposes an inflation forecasting model for Togo through a simple autoregressive (AR) model. Using data on inflation measured by the annual percentage change in the consumer price index (CPI), ranging from 1967 to 2019, we find that a simple AR(1)model can help forecasting inflation...

This article seeks to check the nonlinearity of the Phillips curve in Tunisia for the 1993-2012 period, relying on a hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve modeled via a Logistic Smooth Transition Regression (LSTR) model with endogenous variables. We estimate this model using the nonlinear...

This paper presents evidence for sources and channels of nonlinearities and instabilities of the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) for the euro area and all but four member states over the last two decades prior to the COVID-19 crisis. The approach rests upon misspecification testing using...