The paper examines the relative performance of Stochastic Volatility (SV) and Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) (1,1) models fitted to ten years of daily data for FTSE. As a benchmark, we used the realized volatility (RV) of FTSE sampled at 5 min intervals taken...

Using firm-level survey data from Germany, this paper asks how do supply constraints propagate monetary policy shocks? To answer this question, we first offer a general discussion on the measurement of supply constraints. We show that capacity utilization, a widely accepted measure of...

Using unique firm-level survey data from Germany, this paper investigates two measures of supply constraints: a new direct measure that indicates material shortages and capacity utilization, a widely accepted measure of bottlenecks and slack. We document substantial heterogeneity in supply...

We construct risks around consensus forecasts of real GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. We find that risks are time-varying, asymmetric, and partly predictable. Tight financial conditions forecast downside growth risk, upside unemployment risk, and increased uncertainty around the...

We revisit in this note the macroeconomic impact of the recent rise in trade policy uncertainty. As in the literature, we do find that high trade policy uncertainty can adversely impact domestic and foreign economic activity. In addition, we identify an alternative business sentiment channel...

We study the relationship between bank capital ratios and the distribution of future real GDP growth. Growth in the aggregate bank capital ratio corresponds to a smaller left tail of GDP - smaller crisis probability - but at the cost of a smaller right tail of growth outcomes - smaller...

Does the effect of monetary policy depend on the prevailing level of inflation? In order to answer this question, we construct a parsimonious nonlinear time series model that allows for inflation regimes. We find that the effects of monetary policy are markedly different when year-over-year...

This paper studies large sample classical and Bayesian inference in a prototypical linear DSGE model and demonstrates that inference on the structural parameters based on a Gaussian likelihood is unaffected by departures from Gaussianity of the structural shocks. This surprising result is due to...

A limit theory is developed for the least squares estimator for mildly and purely explosive autoregressions under drifting sequences of parameters with autoregressive roots ρn satisfying ρn → ρ ∈ (-∞, -1] ∪ [1, ∞) and n (|ρn| -1) → ∞. Drifting sequences of innovations and...

A limit theory is developed for the least squares estimator for mildly and purely explosive autoregressions under drifting sequences of parameters with autoregressive roots ρn satisfying ρn Ç ρ ∈ (-É, -1] ∪ [1, É) and n (