Os principais determinantes da variação da inflação no período 1954-95 parecem ser a inflação externa (ou a sua variação) e a variação da taxa de câmbio efectiva do escudo. Verifica-se uma relação de longo prazo entre a taxa de inflação e a taxa de variação dos custos...

After the publication of Keynes' "General Theory," economics was frequently described as schizophrenia: (neo-) classical at the micro-level, but Keynesian at the macro-level. In actuality, Keynes' revolution was, to a substantial part, based on the behavioral micro-foundations of the world we...

This article examines, in the light of recent events, the origins of the difficulties that current macroeconomic models have in encompassing the sort of sudden crisis which we are currently observing. The reasons for this are partly due to fundamental problems with the underlying General...

What matters to economic decision-making is whether the economy has become more or less predictable. People and businesses use information around them to form judgements about what might happen in the future. The rise in uncertainty might be associated with increased concern about extreme...

Let us suppose that presently unimagined is possible, that “the unexpected may happen” (Marshall, 1920, p. 347). Then “human decisions affecting the future, whether personal, political or economic, cannot depend on strict mathematical expectation since the basis for making such...

This study takes up Keynes' ideas concerning long-term expectations, particularly his notion that expectations are subject to sudden changes with strong effects on economic activity. We start by detailing Keynes' views regarding the nature of expectations and their role in the business cycle. I...

After the publication of Keynes' "General Theory," economics was frequently described as schizophrenia: (neo-) classical at the micro-level, but Keynesian at the macro-level. In actuality, Keynes' revolution was, to a substantial part, based on the behavioral micro-foundations of the world we...

This paper discusses modern macroeconomic and financial models in the light of the current crisis. Theory has been revealed to be inadequate in its explanation of the origins and the nature of the crisis, as Jean-Claude Trichet the Governor of the European Central bank and his colleagues at...