A la luz de la historia comprendida en el período 1954-2002, que abarca episodios de creciente volatilidad en el producto para Colombia, el objetivo del trabajo es hallar empíricamentea partir de la información macroeconómica disponible y en el contexto de las diversas teorías, qué...

The monetary programme – constructed on a quarterly basis in the NBH – is a crucial internal product of the decision making process. The programme evaluates the development of net financing capacities of different sectors and the monetary survey and gives a financial side story about the...

This paper investigates the usefulness of Italian consumer surveys as estimation and forecasting tool over the period 1982-2003. To this end, standard consumption equations are estimated and then compared, in terms of in-sample and out-of-sample predictive ability, with corresponding models...

This paper showed that the drop of propensity to consume in Japan during the lost decade is attributable to increase of income risks, mainly due to rises in unenployment rate/ To asses the impacts of income risks, we used the buffer stock saving model and a numerical method. The buffer stock...

A la luz de la historia comprendida en el periodo 1954-2002, que abarca episodios de creciente volatilidad en el producto para Colombia, el objetivo del trabajo es hallar empíricamente a partir de la información macroeconómica disponible y en el contexto de las diversas teorías, que...

We integrate the housing market and the labor market in a dynamic general equilibrium model with credit and search frictions. The model is confronted with the U.S. macroeconomic time series. Our estimated model can account for two prominent facts observed in the data. First, the land price and...

We assess the ability of the Reuters/Michigan Surveys of Consumers to predict future changes in consumer expenditures. The information in the Surveys is summarized by means of principal components of consumer attitudes with respect to income and wealth, interest rates, and prices. These summary...

This paper shows that the debt burden of households, as measured by the debt service to income ratio, is helpful in forecasting the future growth of consumer spending. Not only is the debt-service ratio a statistically significant predictor of future spending growth, it also explains about as...

Separate macroeconomic consumption demand functions are developed and tested for (1) durable goods, (2) nondurable goods and (3) services. These are compared for consistency with econometric studies of total consumer demand. Key factors determining demand for these goods are tested using U.S....