whether the use of disaggregated information increases the forecast accuracy of the aggregate. For this purpose, the out …-ofsample forecasts for the aggregated employment forecast are compared to and contrasted with forecasts based on a vector … employment forecast. Moreover, fluctuation-window tests help identify the phases during which disaggregation increases forecast …

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to …