In this paper, the author empirically assesses the predictive power of short-term interest rates and term spreads for future inflation in Germany. Based on a multivariate term structure framework, a vector error forecasting equation for inflation forecasts of up to two years is constructed. The...

This paper reviews the most recent issues in the ongoing debate on the reform of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Fund has recognized that IMF surveillance should put greater weight on analyzing and discussing global economic issues. By taking account of international spillovers,...

This paper calculates structural balances for EU-countries and relates them to fiscal sustainability. Although the Stability Pact implicitly accepts the need to distinguish between the structural and the cyclical component of net deficits, the issue of long-term sustainability is only covered by...