This paper has three different motivations. Firstly, we wish to contribute to the debate on whether French inflation has been persistent since the mid-eighties. Empirical evidence in this domain has been mixed. We use the standard method of testing for breaks in the mean of the inflation series...

We develop a new automatically-computable test for super exogeneity, using a variant of general-to-specific modelling. Based on the recent developments in impulse saturation applied to marginal models under the null that no impulses matter, we select the significant impulses for testing in the...

The paper discusses different methods to deal with unobservable variables: Kalman-Filtering, principal components, factor analysis, LISREL, MIMIC, DYMIMIC, PLS with respect to parameter estimation and forecasting. We got very good results by an extension of Kalman-Filtering called AS (general...

This paper constructs a model for the evolution of a risky security that is consistent with a set of observed call option prices. It explicitly treats the fact that only a discrete data set can be observed in practice. The framework is general and allows for state dependent volatility and jumps....

In this paper, we develop a model that has as main outcome the existence of a non-linear relationship between growth and level of education (human capital). This non- linearity condition accrues from empirical estimation done at international level. Moreover, this non-linearity explains the...

In this paper we present a Bayesian solution to the multiple change point problems in the mean m and variance s2 of two Brazilian indexes: Índice Geral da Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (IBOVESPA) and Índice da Bolsa de Valores de Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo e Brasília (IBOVMESB), both...

The estimation of dynamic factor models for large sets of variables has attracted considerable attention recently, due to the increased availability of large datasets. In this paper we propose a new parametric methodology for estimating factors from large datasets based on state space models and...

The estimation of structural dynamic factor models (DFMs) for large sets of variables is attracting considerable attention. In this paper we briefly review the underlying theory and then compare the impulse response functions resulting from two alternative estimation methods for the DFM....

Discounted Cash Flow techniques are the generally accepted methods for valuing firms. Such methods do not provide explicit acknowledgment of the value determinants and overlook their interrelations. This paper proposes a different method of firm valuation based on fuzzy logic and expert systems....

The purpose of this article is to analyze if spatial dependence is a synchronic effect, as it has usually been defined. It is known that in many socio-economic phenomena spatial dependence can be not only contemporary but also time-lagged. In this paper, we use two Moran-based space-time...