We combine micro and macro unemployment duration data to study the effects of the business cycle on the outflow from unemployment. We allow the cycle to affect individual exit probabilities of unemployed workers as well as the composition of the total inflow into unemployment. We estimate the...

Market share models for weekly store-level data are useful to understand competitive structures by delivering own and cross price elasticities. These models can however not be used to examine which brands lose share to which brands during a specificperiod of time. It is for this purpose that we...

We investigate changes in the time series characteristics of postwar U.S. inflation. In a model-based analysis the conditional mean of inflation is specified by a long memory autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average process and the conditional variance is modelled by a stochastic...

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the 'World Bank Economic Review', 2007, 21, 1-20.<p> There has been a revival of interest in the effect of risk on economic growth. We quantify both ex ante and ex post effects of risk using a stochastic version of the Ramsey model. We develop a...</p>

This discussion paper led to a publication in the <I>International Journal of Forecasting</I> (2013). Vol. 29, pages 676-694.<P> We extend the class of dynamic factor yield curve models for the inclusion of macro-economic factors. We benefit from recent developments in the dynamic factor literature for...</p></i>

Automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. This implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership....

In this paper we replace the Gaussian errors in the standard Gaussian, linear state space model with stochastic volatility processes. This is called a GSSF-SV model. We show that conventional MCMC algorithms for this type of model are ineffective, but that this problem can be removed by...

This discussion paper led to the publication 'Applied Economics' (2009), 41(24), 3093-3101.<P> Assessing the scope for insurance in rural communities usually requires a structural model of household behavior under risk. One of the few empirical applications of such models is the study by Rosenzweig...</p>

Many seasonal macroeconomic time series are subject to changes in their means and variances over a long time horizon. In this paper we propose a general treatment for the modelling of time-varying features in economic time series. We show that time series models with mean and variance functions...

This paper resulted in a publication in the <I>Journal of Econometrics</I> (2014). Volume 180, pages 127-140.<P> An exact maximum likelihood method is developed for the estimation of parameters in a nonlinear non-Gaussian dynamic panel data model with unobserved random individual-specific and time-varying...</p></i>