Purpose – To draw attention to a philosophical vacuum underlying the current emphasis on risk assessment. Design/methodology/approach – Definitions of chance, probability and risk are drawn from the literature and the development of risk assessment is surveyed historically. A critique of the...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate with examples the prudence of using or not using ample precautions before launching a strategy or plan of foresight. Design/methodology/approach – A series of practical episodes illustrate the effects of predetermined care and precaution,...

Purpose – The objective of this paper is to scan the extent of uncertainty and hesitation in the development of plans and strategy. Design/methodology/approach – The author evokes concrete cases of risk aversion, when the action either goes ahead or is stymied by lack of certitude. The...

Purpose – The threat environment countries face is a dynamic one, with many emerging technologies. This paper presents unique challenges as countries evaluate which technologies to pursue in support of national security. Rather than addressing a broad range of strategic options, this paper...

Purpose – The objective of this paper is to offer a validated framework for the analysis of (future) risks and uncertainties involved in the decision‐making process concerning the upgrade and roll‐out of large infrastructural projects, e.g. broadband networks. The framework classifies...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to put the paper by Jay Ogilvy in the context of current debates around the philosophical foundations of future studies. Design/methodology/approach – The paper takes the form of a review and analyzes the current literature on foresight and philosophy...

Purpose – In this review, the aim is first to define horizon scanning and then outline the general approach currently employed by many organisations using web‐based resources. It then aims to discuss the benefits and drivers of horizon scanning, to identify some organisations currently...

Purpose – The Foresight Future Flooding (FFF) project researched flood risk in the UK to the year 2100 for central government, using scenarios and a national risk assessment model backed by qualitative analysis from panels of some 45 senior scientists. The purpose of this paper is to assess...