Forecasting markets are a promising approach for predicting future events. The basic idea of a forecasting market is to trade virtual stocks whose final value is tied to a particular future event. The market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of those future events....

This paper tests whether out-of-sample hedonic value predictions can be improved when a large urban housing market is divided into submarkets.

Diese Masterthesis soll zukünftige Marktentwicklungen des Grossraums Bern als Wohnort ausweisen. Da der Blick in die Zukunft von verschiedenen Prognosen abhängig ist, wird eine qualitative Vorgehensweise gewählt. Somit sollen die Grundzüge festgelegt werden, die erkennen lassen, wie sich der...

This paper studies the effects of investors’ heterogeneous beliefs on the trading volume,price volatility, and liquidity of stocks. Following Kurz and Motolese (2008), wepropose a simple theoretical model to show that the equilibrium stock price is linearlyand positively correlated with market...

Prediction markets are a promising approach forpredicting uncertain future events and developments.These markets will work well if they are efficient and inefficient markets, one does not expect arbitrageopportunities to be persistent. This paper thereforestudies whether pure arbitrage...

Prediction markets have proven high forecasting performance in many areas such as politics, sportsand business-related fields compared to traditional instruments such as polls or expert opinions. Theadvantage of real-money prediction markets is to provide participants with a clear incentive to...

There is strong evidence that on-the-run U.S. Treasury securities trade muchmore liquidly and at significantly higher prices than their off-the-run counterparts.We examine if the same phenomenon is present in the German government bondmarket whose market structure differ markedly from that of...