How to make forecasts that (1) satisfy constraints, like accounting identities, and (2) are smooth over time? Solving this common forecasting problem manually is resource-intensive, but the existing literature provides little guidance on how to achieve both objectives. This paper proposes a new...

This study applies state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques to forecast IMF-supported programs, analyzes the ML prediction results relative to traditional econometric approaches, explores non-linear relationships among predictors indicative of IMF-supported programs, and evaluates model...