of total inflation to price nominal Treasuries. This approach captures different frequencies in inflation fluctuations … a common structure of latent factors determines and predicts the term structure of yields and inflation. The model … outperforms popular benchmarks and is at par with the Survey of Professional Forecasters in forecasting inflation. Real rates …

of total inflation to price nominal Treasuries. This approach captures different frequencies in inflation fluctuations … a common structure of latent factors determines and predicts the term structure of yields and inflation. The model … outperforms popular benchmarks and is at par with the Survey of Professional Forecasters in forecasting inflation. Real rates …

The term structure of inflation forecasts disagreement in the US can be summarized by two components: disagreement … about the trend inflation, and disagreement about the cyclical inflation. While the former has identical impacts on … forecasting horizons. Only the cyclical inflation disagreement has a significant impact on monetary policy efficacy. High …

The link between London interbank interest rates and future inflation in the UK is investigated over a period which … interest rates and future inflation is found to break down after 1985 …

In this research paper ARCH-type models are applied in order to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of an inflation …-index futures portfolio for several time-horizons. The empirical analysis is carried out for Mexican inflation-indexed futures … time horizons. These results have implications for short-term inflation forecasts. By estimating confidence intervals in …

Any measure of unobserved inflation uncertainty relies on specific assumptions which are most likely not fulfilled … indicator for inflation uncertainty. Moreover, the idiosyncratic component of survey disagreement contains systematic … that higher inflation is followed by higher uncertainty. By contrast, we obtain contradictory results for the individual …

-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds … extensions improve the density forecasts of real GDP and inflation and their joint forecasts up to an eight-quarter horizon. We … find that adding financial frictions leads to a deterioration in the forecasts, with the exception of longer-term inflation …