We use no arbitrage models with macro variables to study the interaction between the macroeconomy and the yield curve. This interaction is a key element for monetary policy and for forecasting. The model was used to analyze the Brazilian domestic financial market using a daily dataset and two...

The uncertainty around future changes to the Federal Reserve target rate varies over time. In our results, the main driver of uncertainty is a "path" factor signaling information about future policy actions, which is filtered from federal funds futures data. The uncertainty is highest when it...

This paper investigates the joint dynamics of nominal bond yields, real bond yields and dividend yields from the 80s up to the aftermath of the financial crisis by mapping them on a set of macro factors. It builds on an existing discrete time affine Gaussian model of the term structure model of...

This paper identifies bank-specific-characteristics and market conditions that contribute to determine prices and demand for liquidity in the interbank market as wells as banks' access to this market. Results indicate that riskier banks pay higher prices and borrow less liquidity, concurrent...

This paper analyses the effects of Swiss National Bank (SNB) communication on asset prices. It distinguishes between different monetary policy news contained in press releases following a monetary policy decision. Employing a latent variable approach and event-study methods, I find that medium-...

We compare the Federal Reserve's asset purchase programs with those implemented by the Bank of England and the Swedish Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank’s reserve expansion program. We decompose government bond yields into (i) an expectations component, (ii) a global term premium and (iii)...

During and after the Great Recession of 2008-09, conventional monetary policy in the United States and many other advanced economies was constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. Several central banks implemented large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs, more...

This paper examines the impact of exogenous liquidity shocks in the unsecured interbank market. We evaluate the effects of idiosyncratic liquidity shocks - arising from deposits outflow at the bank level - and of the aggregate liquidity shock related to the U.S. tapering observed between May and...

This paper analyses the determinants of euro area non-financial corporate bonds since the early 2000s, so as to gauge deviations from the law of one price. We decompose the spread between the yield of German, French, Italian and Spanish corporate bonds vis-à-vis the German Bund of similar...

We investigate the macroeconomic determinants of corporate spreads using a no-arbitrage technique. Structural shocks are identified by a New-Keynesian model. Treasury bonds are priced in an affine model with time-varying risk premia. Corporate bonds are priced in a reduced-form credit risk model...