This paper aims to present one possible retail estimation framework of lifetime probability of default in accordance with IFRS 9. The framework rests on "term structure of probability of default" conditional to given forward-looking macroeconomic dynamics. Due to the one of the biggest...

Public programs often use statistical profiling to assess the risk that applicants will become long-term dependent on the program. The literature uses linear probability models and (Cox) proportional hazard models to predict duration outcomes. These either focus on one threshold duration or...

Based on a sequence of reforms in the Norwegian unemployment insurance (UI) system, weshow that activity-oriented UI regimes – i.e., regimes with a high likelihood of requiredparticipation in active labor market programs, duration limitations on unconditional UIentitlements, and high sanction...

We propose a new model for transaction data that accounts jointly for the time duration between transactions and for the discreteness of the intraday stock price changes. Duration is assumed to follow a stochastic conditional duration model, while price discreteness is captured by an...

We analyze the duration of the patent examination process at the EuropeanPatent Office (EPO). Our data contain information related to the patent’seconomic and technical relevance, EPO capacity and workload as well as novelcitation measures which are derived from the EPO’s search reports. In...

This paper assesses whether short-lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long-lasting jobs (enduring one year or more) for Belgian long-term unemployed school-leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate labour market...

This paper assesses whether short-lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long-lasting jobs (enduring one year or more) for Belgian long-term unemployed school-leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate labour market...

This paper investigates the effects of five different vocational rehabilitation (VR) programs on the hazard rates into employment, disability and temporarily withdrawals from the labor market for persons who face severe problems in re-entering the labor market, mostly due to medical problems....

We study job durations using a multivariate hazard model allowing for worker-specific and firm-specific unobserved determinants. The latter are captured by unobserved heterogeneity terms or random effects, one at the firm level and another at the worker level. This enables us to decompose the...

We use a multivariate hazard model for the analysis of data on the timing of ratifications of different conventions. The model accounts for two random effects, one at the country level and the other at the convention level. We use a semi-parametric Bayesian approach, based on the partial...