Identification of structural VARs using sign restrictions has become increasingly popular in the academic literature. This paper (i) argues that identification of shocks can benefit from introducing a global dimension, and (ii) shows that summarising information by the median of the available...

Well known CPI of urban consumers is never revised. Recently initiated chained CPI is initially released every month (ICPI), for that month without delay within BLS and for the previous month with one month delay to the public. Final estimates of chained CPI (FCPI) are released every February...

This paper develops a long-run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse", which primarily focuses on...

Identification of structural VARs using sign restrictions has become increasingly popular in the academic literature. This paper (i) argues that identification of shocks can benefit from introducing a global dimension, and (ii) shows that summarising information by the median of the available...

The Japanese lost decade has become an intriguing puzzle for both economists and policy-makers alike, as the unemployment rate climbed to unprecedented levels and the growth rate of productivity decreased considerably. More recent times seem to present with a more optimistic outlook, but this is...

This paper presents tests of long run macroeconomic relations involving interest rates, equity, prices and exchange rates suggested by arbitrage in financial and goods markets. It uses the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to test for long run restrictions in each country/region...

This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2009) to a labor exporting country that receives large inflows of external income — the sum of remittances, FDI and general government transfers — from major oil-exporting economies. The theoretical model predicts real oil...

For most academics and policy makers, the depth of the 2007-09 financial crisis, its longevity and its impacts on the real economy resulted from an erosion of confidence. This paper proposes to assess empirically the link between consumer sentiment and consumption expenditures for the United...

This paper develops a long run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse," which primarily focus on short...

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR-model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979-2011Q2, to discriminate - between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects...