The New IS and Phillips Curves state that output and inflation are purely forward-looking but this theory is conflicting with the empirical results. This note analyses how an augmented version of those curves, called hybrid IS and Phillips curves are more consistent with the data properties

This note applies H-infinite methods to an estimated hybrid monetary policy model (cf. Sahuc, Applied Economics Letters, 9, pp. 949-55, 2002) and derives standard and robust optimal interest rate rules. We find that the "robust" central banker responds more aggressively than it does without...

The measurement of potential output has been addressed in economics from the supply- and demand-side perspectives. The purpose of this study was to deepen the latter interpretation, focusing on market conditionalities and providing a macro-model (EUMOD21) as a computational tool. This empirical...

This paper examines macroeconomic effects and transmission mechanisms of COVID19 in Mongolia, a developing and commodity-exporting economy, by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on quarterly data. We find strong cross-border spillover effects of COVID-19. Our estimates...

The primary objective of this paper is to revisit DSGE models with a view to bringing out their key weaknesses, including statistical misspecification, non-identification of deep parameters, substantive inadequacy, weak forecasting performance, and potentially misleading policy analysis. It is...

We propose an approach for jointly measuring global macroeconomic uncertainty and bilateral spillovers of uncertainty between countries using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. Over the period 2000Q1-2020Q4, our global index is able to summarize a variety of uncertainty measures, such...

Testing for causation—defined as the preceding impact of the past value(s) of one variable on the current value of another when all other pertinent information is accounted for—is increasingly utilized in empirical research using the time-series data in different scientific disciplines. A...

We nowcast and forecast Austrian economic activity, namely real gross domestic product (GDP), consumption and investment, which are available at a quarterly frequency. While nowcasting uses data up to (and including) the quarter to be predicted, forecasting uses only data up to the previous...

This paper analyses the international linkages of the Korean economy using the GVAR model developed by Greenwood-Nimmo, Nguyen and Shin (2012a, J. Appl. Econometrics). By employing a combination of generalized impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decompositions, we uncover a...

This paper studies the impact of oil price shocks on fiscal policy and real GDP in Oman using new unexplored data. We find that an oil price shock explains around 22% and 46% of the variation in the government revenue and GDP, respectively. Decomposing the government revenue and GDP further into...