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Two Bayesian sampling schemes are outlined to estimate a K-state Markov switching model with time-varying transition probabilities. Data augmentation for the multinomial logit model of the transition probabilities is alternatively based on a random utility and a difference in random utility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010493611
In this paper we report results on inflation persistence using 79 inflation series covering the EU countries, the euro … area and the US for five different inflation variables. The picture that emerges is one of moderate inflation persistence … across the board. In particular we find euro area inflation persistence to be broadly in line with US inflation persistence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120765
Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low inthe euro area. Based on an … augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that thisphenomenon-sometimes attributed to low global inflation-has been primarily … causedby a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. Thisfeature is shown to be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910359
inflation are co-breaking. We argue that the step-like development of inflation is in line with shocks and monetary policy that …% inflation was accomplished by introducing an inflation targeting regime …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968579
This paper studies factors behind inflation dynamics in the euro area, the UK and the US. It introduces a factor … inflation in the three economies. The FAVAR model framework is also applied to study the effects on inflation subcomponents in … the more recent past. The FAVAR models suggest that headline inflation in the three economies has reacted in a relatively …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020653
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191432
In this paper we report results on inflation persistence using 79 inflation series covering the EU countries, the euro … area and the US for five different inflation variables. The picture that emerges is one of moderate inflation persistence … across the board. In particular we find euro area inflation persistence to be broadly in line with US inflation persistence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318918
This paper carries out another evaluation on a highly debated property of inflation dynamics, namely its persistence …. We study inflation dynamics for the United States since 1959 with a time-varying methodology where the intercept … remarkably low end-of-sample estimates for inflation persistence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014177885
Bangladesh. The first posits that an increase in inflation leads to greater inflation uncertainty, while the second asserts that … inflation uncertainty causes an increase in inflation. Using monthly inflation data from June 1997 to July 2021, we find … evidence supporting both hypotheses. Additionally, our empirical analysis allows us to estimate inflation persistence and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014355615
, while those using GMM have reported the inflation dynamics to be predominantly forward-looking. This paper provides a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014187933