While empirical evidence nds only a weak relationship between nominal exchangerates and macroeconomic fundamentals, forex markets participants often attribute ex-change rate movements to a macroeconomic variable. The variables that matter, how-ever, appear to change over time and some variable...

We examine the quantification of operational risk for banks. We adopt a financial-economics approach and interpret operational risk management as a means of optimizing the profitability of an institution along its value chain. We start by defining operational risk and then propose a...

We propose a simple and implementable model of credit contagion where we in-clude macro- and microstructural dependencies among the debtors within a creditportfolio. We show that, even for diversified portfolios, moderate microstructuraldependencies have already a significant impact on the tails...

There is an extensive literature claiming that it is often difficultto make use of arbitrage opportunities in financial markets. Thispaper provides a new reason why existing arbitrage opportunitiesmight not be seized. We consider a world with short-lived securities,no short-selling constraints...

This paper studies in some examples the role of information in a default-risk framework. In a first-passage model, we assume that investors obtain two types of information about the firm’s unlevered asset value at a discrete sequence of dates. The effects of information on the distributional...

We analyze the problem of real optimal asset allo cation for a p ensionfund maximising the exp ected CRRA utility of its real disp osable wealth.The financial horizon of the analysis coincides with the random deathtime of a representative subscriber. We consider a very general settingwhere...

We propose a simple class of semiparametric multivariate GARCH models, allowing for asymmetric volatilities and time-varying conditional correlations. Estimates for time-varying conditional correlations are constructed by means of a convex combination of estimates for averaged correlations...

We propose a multivariate nonparametric technique for generating reliable scenarios and confidence intervals for the term structure of interest rates from historical data. The approach is based on a functional gradient descent (FGD) estimation of the conditional mean vector and the conditional...

Extreme Value Theory (EVT) has develop ed very rapidly over the past two decades both methodologically and with respect to applications. Whereas (non–life) actuaries have, at least implicitly, used EVT techniques for a long time, mainly through the emergence of quantitative Risk Management, EVT...

We consider the modelling of rare events in financial time series,and introduce a marked point process model for the excesses of thetime series over a high threshold that combines a self-exciting processfor the exceedances with a mark (size) dependent process. This allowsrealistic models for...