This paper analyzes the persistence or serial correlation of expected returns as well as the univariate time-series approach that studies the implied autocorrelation function of realized stock returns, including mean reversion and its conditions. In particular, we critically examine whether...

This paper examines how the evidence of stock market predictability affects optimal portfolio choice for buy-and-hold and dynamic investors with different planning horizons. As in Barberis (2000), particular attention is paid to estimation risk, i.e., uncertainty about the true values of the...

This paper uses statistical model selection criteria and Avramovs (2002) Bayesian model averaging approach to analyze the sample evidence on stock market predictability in the presence of model uncertainty. Based on Swiss stock market data, our posterior analysis finds that neither the...

Momentum strategies based on continuations in stock prices have become increas-ingly popular among academics, money managers, and investors in recent years. While there is little controversy on the profitability of momentum strategies, their implementation is afflicted with many difficulties....

We shed new light on the negative relationship between real stock returns or real interest rates and (i) ex post inflation, (ii) expected inflation, (iii) unexpected inflation and (iv) changes in expected inflation. Using the structural vector autoregression methodology, we propose a...

The purpose of this note is to review and understand what is called the shareholders unanimity result in the finance literature. We first will stress that "unanimity" is an equilibrium concept, which requires that an investment decision in a largely held firm be taken only if all shareholders...

In this paper we applied the model of individual choice under ambiguity proposed by Zhang (2002) in the context of the market model of asset returns of Kwon (1985). The ambiguity is introduced via unknown volatilities of assets residual leading to two factor CAPM. We test this model on US stock...

This paper analyses the consequences of the process of financial and economic integration on European equity markets. It documents significant changes in fundamentals, notably an increased synchronisation of macroeconomic activities, and a non-negligible evolution in pricing, with a decrease in...

We demonstrate that in simple 2 X 2 games (cumulative) prospect theorypreferences can be evolutionarily stable, i.e. a population of players withprospect theory preferences can not be invaded by more rational players. Thisholds also if probability weighting is applied to the probabilities of...

We study probabilities which determine the payo of barrier options:the probability that an asset hits a barrier before maturity, theprobability that the asset is below the barrier at maturity, and theratio of both probabilities. The correct estimation of these probabilitieshas crucial eects on...