We develop intuitive expressions for the spread between a forwardcontract and a similar futures contract taking into account the pos-sibility of counterparty default. We evaluate these expressions nu-merically and show that the forward-futures spread is significant forrealistic parameter...

We analyze the role played by the boundary value for the sensitivity of the creditworthiness predictions in methodologies based on Merton [1974]. We run Monte-Carlo simulations with two various samples of firms - American, European - in order to build confidence intervals for the estimator of...

n this paper we analyse recovery rates on defaulted bonds using the Standard and Poors / PMD database for the years 1981-1999. Due to the specific nature of the data (observations lie within 0 and 1), we must rely on nonstandard econometric techniques. The recovery rate density is estimated...

Empirically, we show that the proportion of stocks exhibiting conditional heteroscedastic residuals, is high. We suggested to use the market model with GARCH(1,1) residuals in order to describe daily stock returns and derived a test statistics for the null hypothesis of no abnormal returns,...

In letzter Zeit häufen sich Zahlungsschwierigkeiten von Ländern gegenüber ihrenausländischen Geldgebern. Beim Ausbleiben dieser Zahlungen wird um die Stabilität des internationalen Finanzsystems gefürchtet. Um diese Gefahr abzuwenden, werden den zahlungsunfähigen Ländern unter der...

The financial industry puts the Basle Committee under strain to align regulatory capital with economic capital. This could be reached by allowing more flexibility in the choice of risk measure for regulatory reporting. Markus Leippold and Paolo Vanini show that if banks could use the...

We present a multivariate, non-parametric technique for constructing reliable daily VaR predictions for individual assets belonging to a common equity market segment, which takes also into account the possible dependence structure between the assets and is still computationally feasible in large...

We propose a local likelihood estimation for the log-transformed ARCH(1) model in the financial field. Our nonparametric estimator is constructed within the likelihood framework for non-Gaussian observations: it is different from standard kernel regression smoothing, where the innovations are...

One of the most enduring questions in finance is the persistence of investment risk across time. Traditional finance lacks of recipes on how to approach and how to hedge non-diversifiable risks. Risks that can not be diversified at a given point in time can nevertheless be averaged over time...

We present a geometric approach to discrete time multiperiod mean variance portfolio opti-mization that largely simplifies the mathematical analysis and the economic interpretation of such model settings. We show that multiperiod mean variance optimal policies can be decom-posed in an orthogonal...