This paper revisits the Swedish banking crisis (1919-26) that materialized as post war deflation replaced wartime inflation (1914-18). Inspired by Fisher's 'debt deflation theory', we employ survival analysis to 'predict' which banks would fail, given certain ex-ante bank characteristics. Our...

The banking and currency crises of the last two decades inflictedsubstantial financial, economic, and social damage on thecountries in which they originated. In this work, the efficiencyof early warning indicators for these disastrous economic eventsis evaluated. An analysis of the traditional...

"Using an early warning system (EWS) model, this paper provides more empirical evidence on the causes of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, with a view to discriminating between the two hypotheses of "weak fundamentals" and "investors' panic." The results show that there are strong warning signals...

This paper uses a Markov regime-switching model to assess the vulnerability of a series of Central and Eastern European countries (i.e. Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovak Republic) and two CIS countries (i.e., Russia and Ukraine) during the period 19932004. For the new EU member states in Central...