In this article, we address the question of how non-knowledge about future events that influence economic agents’ decisions in choice settings has been formally represented in economic theory up to date. To position our discussion within the ongoing debate on uncertainty, we provide a?brief...

The idea is advanced that self-organization in complex systems can be treated as decision making (as it is performed by humans) and, vice versa, decision making is nothing but a kind of self-organization in the decision maker nervous systems. A mathematical formulation is suggested based on the...

The paper proves that the Bayesian approach to learning and expectations formation implies no propositions that could conceivably be refuted by observation. For a (non-expanding) universe infinite in time but finite at any point of time, it is shown that by a suitable choice of priors, any...

Prior research suggests that those who rely on intuition rather than effortful reasoning when making decisions are less averse to risk and ambiguity. The evidence is largely correlational, however, leaving open the question of the direction of causality. In this paper, we present experimental...

This report comprises four reactions to the recent policy statement in Basic and Applied Social Psychology that announced a ban on null-hypothesis testing in that journal. A personal perspective is presented which agrees with the editors that null-hypothesis testing has become dysfunctional, but...

We study quantitative information flow, from the perspective of an analyst who is interested in maximizing its expected gain in the process of discovering a secret, or settling a hypothesis, represented by an unobservable <i>X</i>, after observing some <i>Y</i> related to <i>X</i>. In our framework, inspired by...

In this paper I shall introduce a new method by which it is possible to study the dynamical decision maker's behaviour. It can be tought of as an application of the S -Linear Algebra of Professor David Carfì, thus this theory it is assumed to be known. I shall focus on the Feynman's propagator...

In decision theory projects are usually evaluated in terms of their riskiness, and often decision under risk is intended as the one-shot-type binary choice of accepting or not accepting the risk. This paper elaborates on the concept of risk acceptance, and aims at developing a theoretical...

Decision theory and game theory are extended to allow for information processing errors. This extended theory is then used to reexamine market speculation and consensus, both when all actions (opinions) are common knowledge and when they may not be. Five axioms of information processing are...