In modern portfolio theory like that of Markowitz or Sharpe the investor follows amean/variance-rationality. Even the founders of this theory observed unsatisfactory resultsbecause of symmetrical risk measures like variance or standard deviation. Post-modern theorythen considers downside risk...

Efficient applications of expert systems to project risk management problemsare seldom, if not unusual. In this paper we overcome this lack by using the probabilisticexpert system shell SPIRIT. The rule-based shell’s power in conditioning, inference andreasoning under incomplete information...

Bayes-Nets are a suitable means for probabilistic inference. Such nets are very restricted concerning the communicationlanguage with the user, however. MinREnt-inference in a conditional environment is a powerfulcounterpart to this concept. Here conditional expressions of high complexity instead...

Information is a precious resource when solving decision problemsunder uncertainty. The paper deals with the estimation of the value of informationunder different rationality concepts of the decision maker. The value of informationand the expected value of (un)certain information will be...

In this contribution the frequently meaningless statementsin the relevant economy literature, about what is knowledge and whatis information, are overcome going back to the roots of information andcommunication theory. Information and entropy are defined preciselyand then the theoretical concept...

(Probabilistische) Konditionale stellen ein Kommunikationsinstrumentdar, mit dem Wissen in einer reichen Sprache vermittelt werden kann.Ziel dieses Artikels ist es aufzuzeigen, wie die Konditionalsprache erweitert werdenkann, um auch Sprachgefüge mit temporalem Kontext auszudrücken. Zur...