This paper compares the empirical performance of continuous time models for the dynamics of nine different implied volatility indices. The models include linear, quadratic and nonlinear drift specifications with affine, constant elasticity of variance (CEV) and stochastic elasticity of variance...

The situation of a limited availability of historical data is frequently encountered in portfolio risk estimation, especially in credit risk estimation. This makes it, for example, difficult to find temporal structures with statistical significance in the data on the single asset level. By...

In this paper an in-depth analysis of the estimation of the realized volatility Wishart Autoregressive model is presented. We focus in particular on the estimation of the degrees of freedom. A new estimator is proposed. Monte Carlo simulations show that this novel estimator is more efficient...

Efficient posterior simulators for two GARCH models with generalized hyperbolic disturbances are presented. The first model, GHt-GARCH, is a threshold GARCH with a skewed and heavy-tailed error distribution; in this model, the latent variables that account for skewness and heavy tails are...

We investigate a new separable nonparametric model for time series, which includes many ARCH models and AR models already discussed in the literature. We also propose a new estimation procedure based on a localization of the econometric method of instrumental variables. Our method has...

We propose a new model for dynamic volatilities and correlations of skewed and heavy-tailed data. Our model endows the Generalized Hyperbolic distribution with time-varying parameters driven by the score of the observation density function. The key novelty in our approach is the fact that the...

We propose a new model for dynamic volatilities and correlations of skewed and heavy-tailed data. Our model endows the Generalized Hyperbolic distribution with time-varying parameters driven by the score of the observation density function. The key novelty in our approach is the fact that the...

This paper takes a new empirical look at the longstanding question of the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows by studying the case of Taiwan's exports to the United States from 1989-1998. In particular, we employ sectoral level, monthly data and an innovative rational...

It is well known that the class of strong (Generalized) AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (or GARCH) processes is not closed under contemporaneous aggregation. This paper provides the dynamics followed by the aggregate process when the individual persistence parameters are drawn from...